2026-12-20 · 10 KM RUN · 2025: 47:25 (4:42/km) · target 45:30–46:30 · FTP=250W · LTHR 176
LAST: Ourém-Fátima 4:32:33 · 164th overall · Masters B 55th (no DNF, no puncture) → NEXT: Base 1 wk2 Mon 9 Nov · Leiria granfondo 28 Feb 2027 · Estrela 27 Jun 2027
41
days out · 10 km run
0.9
ACWR · OPTIMAL · acute 390 / chronic 400
LOW
recovery · RHR 56 · HRV 34, base 35 LOW · sleep 77 FAIR / 8.4 h (onset 23:27)
MON 9 · rest rule overridden: 53' indoor at 18:07, 143 W, HR 133 avg / 150 max (cap 140), Z3 for 26'. Power was clean, HR ran about 4 bpm higher than Friday at the same watts; RHR 55, HRV baseline 35. · NEXT: Tue gym 07:15 (light, no bike) · Wed now Z2 60' by default (SS only if all gates pass) · Lights-out 22:15 tonight
FITNESS_ENGINE[FIT]
250W
FTP · confirmed 18 Sep
3.34W/kg
@ 74.8 kg (~18 Sep)
321W
MAP · 4.29 W/kg
51
VO2max cyc (53 on 6 Nov)
0.77
FTP:MAP
aim .80–.85
CEILING UNCHANGED: NM 1022 · AC 405 (PB) · MAP 321 · cyc VO2max 53 (52.6; peak 55). Ourém (4.5 h, +1,950 m) power-duration, not a test: 1 min 333 · 5 min 279 · 10 min 260 · 20 min 241 · 60 min 207 W; 20 min at 96 % of FTP after hours of climbing = engine intact. Serra d'Ossa: 20 min 235 · 60 min 215 W. No FTP inference from either; next 4DP is Base 1 wk 6 (7–13 Dec). Ratio 0.77 = Pursuiter. Endurance Score still returns no value / Hill Score empty (retried 9 Nov). Body comp not reported since 18 Sep.
FORM · TSB[TSB]
+10
400
CTL fitness
390
ATL fatigue
ACWR 0.9 OPTIMAL (chronic band 320–600), acute 390 after Sun 107 + Mon 62, STRAINED_4. Load is fine; the recovery data is not. TSB fell from +74 to +10 in a day only because two rides landed together. Hold volume, no extras until RHR is back to 51-52.
CHRONIC LOAD vs OPTIMAL RANGE[CTL]
▮ CTL (chronic load) · ▒ optimal load range (Garmin/Firstbeat). Bars 371→606→561 (Sun 27) → 456 (3 Oct) → 545 (4 Oct) → 607 (18 Oct) → 572 (25 Oct) → 400 today: CTL easing off its peak, still inside the band (320–600) and 80 above the floor, as the race load rolls off. Fitness is intact; Transition is for absorbing it.
DURABILITY + FUEL[DUR]
79g/h
carbs · Ourém (356 g / 4h29)
~480ml/h
fluid · 2.15 L · target 600–700
−8%
W per HR · coolest vs hottest third
Ourém, 4h29 moving, +1,950 m: temperature-matched read = coolest third 212 W @ HR 158 vs hottest third 190 W @ HR 154, i.e. power per heartbeat down ~8 %, moderate and expected after a 274 W opening (the −9.5 % half-split over-reads on front-loaded climbing). Fuel: 4 gels (160 g) + 8 % bottles (132 g) + 500 of 750 ml of a 96 g drink (~64 g) = ~356 g ≈ 79 g/h, on target. Fluid 2.15 L ≈ 480 ml/h, ~25 % short; part of the fade may be under-drinking (suggestive, not provable). The 12.8 % third bottle was too thick to finish. Sodium ~1,900 mg ≈ 420 mg/h (~890 mg/L): fine, so the gap is volume, not salt. Ambient 16 °C at 09:00, wind 4 km/h (the Edge max of 29 °C is sun over-read). Pedals normal: balance 48.7 / 51.3, TE 74 / 76 %, PCO 12 / 9 mm. Wall: 457 s at 239 W (3.2 W/kg), HR 166, cadence 68. Fix for Base 1: bottles at 8 %, a drink timer. Serra d'Ossa is still blank.
CARBS g/h vs 80 TARGET[FUE]
race target 80 g/h →
82Wk6 4h10
83Wk7 3h05
85Wk8 2h41
76Wk9 3h20
82Wk10 3h50
73*Wk11 4h40
83Wk13 4h49
100↑Wk14 3h19
~87Wk15 2h07
n/rSerra 3h29 DNF
~66Sun11 3h12
79OURÉM 4h29
n/rSun25 1h55
39Sun1 2h04
n/rSun8 1h50 in
Carbs solved 9 rides deep (race band 80–90 g/h rehearsed; Wk14 ~100 g/h = gut ceiling). Serra d'Ossa and Sun 25 not recorded (n/r); Ourém 79 g/h. Sun 1 Nov: 2 gels only, no bottles (~39 g/h, ~no fluid, cold). *Wk11 ~73 g/h (family emergency mid-ride).
RECOVERY_TELEMETRY · to 9 NOV · LOW: RHR 55-56 two days running · HRV 34, baseline 35 LOW · sleep 77 FAIR / 8.4 h · bed 23:27 · 0/7 at goal · rode Mon 18:07 anyway[REC]
Sleep score
77 FAIR · 8.4 h (Sun night)
Fair night after the 34: 8.4 h, but deep 59 min and REM 65 min, avg sleep stress 24. Five of seven nights 81+.
Resting HR
56 7d avg 53 (Garmin)
Second day at 56 (block was 51-53). Over your 54 limit: rest or walk, watch throat and body feel.
HRV baseline
35 LOW · last night 34
Baseline 35, lowest of the block (39 on 7 Nov). Last night recovered from 22 to 34, still under the 42 gate.
Bedtime vs 22:00
23:27 goal 22:00-22:30 · 0/7
Back to 23:27 after 03:08; wake 07:52. Nearest miss was 22:32 on 4 Nov. 0 of 7 nights at goal, 22:15 tonight.
WK02_SCHEDULE // BASE 1 · 9 → 15 NOV · ~6 H HOLD[SCH]
MON✓Z2 53' (override) — rest rule tripped (RHR 56) but ridden 18:07 · 143 W · HR 133 / 150 max · Z3 26' · load 62override
TUE○Gym 07:15 — no bike · light, 3x12, no failure · leg-heavy = Wed to Z2
WED⚐Z2 60' default — HR 125-140 · SS 2x10 only if RHR 52 or lower, HRV 40+, sleep 6.5 h+, bed by 22:30 Tuenext · gate
THU•Rest or Z2 45' — Z2 only if Wed clean and baseline 40+ · gym 18:15 if class day
FRI•Z2 60' AM — HR 125-140 · gate at wake · gym 18:15 if not Thu
SAT•Flush Z2 40' — ~138 W · HR under 135 · two misses = walk
SUN•Long Z2 2h15 — outdoors · 60 g/h from min 20-30 · 2h30 only if 8 Nov ride confirmed clean
B1
B2
T1
T2
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
◀ BRIDGE ✓TRANSITIONBASE 1 (2 NOV)BASE 2 ▶
COACH_FLAGS[CMD]
🫀You rode through the rest rule. HR 138 for the same watts Friday did at 134, 26' in Z3, on RHR 55 and a baseline of 35. No harm visible yet; if the rule is advisory, tell me and I will rewrite it. As written it says rest. Watch throat and body feel tomorrow.
🌙Bedtime is the real lever. 0/7 nights at goal, baseline LOW for 8 days. Wed is Z2 60' unless every gate passes and Tue bed is by 22:30. Wk3 deload on 16 Nov now looks likely.
📝Send me: Sun g/h, what happened Sat night, weight (last 18 Sep), Tue class content.
// NEO-TERMINAL · MON 2026-11-09 22:15 · BASE 1 WK2 · Z2 53' RIDDEN (OVERRIDE) · Ourém 4:32:33 ✓ · ACWR 0.9 OK · TSB +10 · sleep 77 · HRV base 35 LOW · T-41 São Silvestre · EOF